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Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic-epidemic model
Natali Hritonenko1, Yuri Yatsenko2
1Department of Mathematics, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX 77446 USA.
Economic Theory
|November 21, 2022
Summary
This study models optimal lockdown strategies using economic-epidemic dynamics and realistic COVID-19 infectivity. It proves that infections can re-emerge after lockdowns, leading to endemic scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Economics
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- Understanding optimal intervention strategies is crucial for managing epidemics.
- Previous models often simplify disease transmission dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze optimal lockdown policies within an economic-epidemic framework.
- To incorporate realistic infectivity distributions, specifically for COVID-19.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Volterra integral equations to model the economic-epidemic system.
- Applied a maximum principle for optimal control.
- Conducted qualitative dynamic analysis over finite and infinite time horizons.
Main Results:
- Derived conditions for optimal lockdown strategies.
- Demonstrated the possibility of an endemic scenario post-lockdown.
- Provided economic justification for the re-emergence of infections.
Conclusions:
- Optimal lockdown policies must account for realistic infectivity patterns.
- Endemic states are a potential outcome even after strict interventions.
- The model offers insights into long-term epidemic management.
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