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Trajectory Data Analyses for Pedestrian Space-time Activity Study
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Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic.

Giorgio Fabbri1, Salvatore Federico2, Davide Fiaschi3

  • 1Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, Grenoble INP GAEL, 38000 Grenoble, France.

Economic Theory
|February 13, 2023
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a novel model linking epidemic dynamics (susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased) with macroeconomic factors. It reveals how individual mobility choices impact both economic activity and disease spread, offering insights for policy interventions.

Keywords:
COVID-19ESIRDMean field gameStrategic complementarities

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Macroeconomics
  • Game Theory

Background:

  • Individual mobility decisions influence both economic outcomes and disease transmission.
  • Interactions between economic activity and epidemic spread are complex and interdependent.
  • Existing models often fail to capture the strategic behavior of rational agents in such scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an integrated framework combining epidemic modeling with dynamic general equilibrium.
  • To analyze the feedback loops between agent mobility, economic activity, and disease diffusion.
  • To explore the implications of strategic agent behavior on equilibrium outcomes and policy interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Nesting a susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) model within a dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium framework.
  • Employing a Mean Field Game approach with rational, forward-looking agents.
  • Proving the existence of a Nash equilibrium and developing a recursive construction method for its identification.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated the existence of a unique equilibrium under specified conditions.
  • Developed a computational method to find equilibrium, validated through numerical simulations.
  • Calibrated the model using Italian COVID-19 data to assess real-world applicability.

Conclusions:

  • The integrated model provides a robust tool for understanding the interplay of epidemics and economies.
  • The findings highlight the importance of considering strategic agent behavior in policy design.
  • The study offers valuable insights for managing public health crises with economic ramifications.