Metacognitive errors in the classroom: The role of variability of past performance on exam prediction accuracy

Students often make incorrect predictions about their exam performance, with the lowest-performing students showing the greatest inaccuracies in their predictions. The reasons why low-performing students make inaccurate predictions are not fully understood. In two studies, we tested the hypothesis that low-performing students erroneously predict their exam performance in part because their past performance varies considerably, yielding unreliable data from which to make their predictions. In contrast, high-performing students tend to have consistently high past performance that they can rely on to make relatively accurate predictions of future test performance. Results showed that across different exams (Study 1) and different courses (Study 2), low-performing students had more variable past performance than high-performing students. Further, results from Study 2 showed that variability in past course performance (but not past exam performance) was associated with poor calibration. Results suggest that variability in past performance may be one factor that contributes to low-performing students' erroneous performance predictions.