Predicting Hospital Readmissions After Total Shoulder Arthroplasty Within a Bundled Payment Cohort

Given the rising demand for shoulder arthroplasty, understanding risk factors associated with unplanned hospital readmission is imperative. No study to date has examined the influence of patient and hospital-specific factors as a predictive model for 90-day readmissions within a bundled payment cohort after primary shoulder arthroplasty. The purpose of this study was to determine predictive factors for 90-day readmissions after primary shoulder arthroplasty within a bundled payment cohort.

After obtaining IRB approval, a retrospective review of a consecutive series of Medicare patients undergoing primary shoulder arthroplasty from 2014 to 2020 at a single academic institution was conducted. Patient demographic data, surgical variables, medical comorbidity profiles, medical risk scores, and social risk scores were collected. Postoperative variables included length of hospital stay, discharge location, and 90-day readmissions. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine the independent risk factors of 90-day readmission.

Overall, 3.6% of primary shoulder arthroplasty patients (127/3,523) were readmitted within 90 days. Readmitted patients had a longer hospital course (1.75 versus 1.45 P = 0.006), higher comorbidity profile (4.64 versus 4.24 P = 0.001), higher social risk score (7.96 versus 6.9 P = 0.008), and higher medical risk score (10.1 versus 6.96 P < 0.001) and were more likely to require a home health aide or be discharged to an inpatient rehab facility or skilled nursing facility ( P = 0.002). Following multivariate analysis, an elevated medical risk score was associated with an increased risk of readmission (odds ratio = 1.05, P < 0.001).

This study demonstrates medical risk scores to be an independent risk factor of increased risk of 90-day hospital readmissions after primary shoulder arthroplasty within a bundled payment patient population. Additional incorporation of medical risk scores may be a beneficial adjunct in preoperative prediction for readmission and the potentially higher episode-of-care costs.

Level III, retrospective cohort.