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Area of Science:

  • Oceanography
  • Climate Science
  • Extreme Weather Events

Background:

  • Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing globally, causing significant ecological and economic damage.
  • Concurrent global temperature rises suggest climate change impacts MHW frequency beyond natural variability.
  • Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) trends show nonlinear, accelerating warming in recent decades.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the drivers of increased marine heatwave frequency.
  • To differentiate the contributions of climate change trends versus internal variability to MHW occurrences.
  • To assess the impact of nonlinear warming trends on MHW frequency and probability.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) to analyze SST data.
  • Separated climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability.
  • Analyzed both observational data and CMIP6 historical climate simulations.

Main Results:

  • Most observed increases in MHW frequency are attributed to regional mean climate trends.
  • These regional warming trends alone significantly increase the probability of SSTs exceeding MHW thresholds.
  • Nonlinear warming trends can artificially inflate perceived SST variance and MHW frequency.

Conclusions:

  • Attribution of global warming-induced climate extremes requires careful consideration of underlying trends.
  • Changes in MHW frequency may not always reflect changes in underlying SST variability.
  • Regional warming trends are a critical factor in understanding and predicting MHW events.