ARIMA model for predicting chronic kidney disease and estimating its economic burden in China

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important global public health issue. In China, CKD affects a large number of patients and causes a huge economic burden. This study provided a new way to predict the number of patients with CKD and estimate its economic burden in China based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Data of the number of patients with CKD in China from 2000 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease. The ARIMA model was used to fit and predict the number of patients with CKD. The direct and indirect economic burden of CKD were estimated by the bottom-up approach and the human capital approach respectively.

The results of coefficient of determination (0.99), mean absolute percentage error (0.26%), mean absolute error (343,193.8) and root mean squared error (628,230.3) showed that the ARIMA (1,1,1) model fitted well. Akaike information criterion (543.13) and Bayesian information criterion (546.69) indicated the ARIMA (1,1,1) model was reliable when analyzing our data. The result of relative error of prediction (0.23%) also suggested that the model predicted well. The number of patients with CKD in 2020 to 2025 was predicted to be about 153 million, 155 million, 157 million, 160 million, 163 million and 165 million respectively, accounting for more than 10% of the Chinese population. The total economic burden of CKD from 2019 to 2025 was estimated to be $179 billion, $182 billion, $185 billion, $188 billion, $191 billion, $194 billion and $198 billion respectively.

The number of patients with CKD and the economic burden of CKD will continue to rise in China. The number of patients with CKD in China would increase by 2.6 million (1.6%) per year on average from 2020 to 2025. Meanwhile, the total economic burden of CKD in China would increase by an average of $3.1 billion per year. The ARIMA model is applicable to predict the number of patients with CKD. This study provides a new perspective for more comprehensive understanding of the future risk of CKD.