A regression analysis using simple descriptors for multiple dermal datasets: Going from individual membranes to the...

In silico methods to estimate and/or quantify skin absorption of chemicals as a function of chemistry are needed to realistically predict pharmacological, occupational, and environmental exposures. The Potts-Guy equation is a well-established approach, using multi-linear regression analysis describing skin permeability (Kp) in terms of the octanol/water partition coefficient (logP) and molecular weight (MW). In this work, we obtained regression equations for different human datasets relevant to environmental and cosmetic chemicals. Since the Potts-Guy equation was published in 1992, we explored recent datasets that include different skin layers, such as dermatomed (including dermis to a defined thickness) and full skin. Our work was consistent with others who have observed that fits to the Potts-Guy equation are stronger for experiments focused on the epidermis. Permeability estimates for dermatomed skin and full skin resulted in low regression coefficients when compared to epidermis datasets. An updated regression equation uses a combination of fitted permeability values obtained with a published 2D compartmental model previously evaluated. The resulting regression equation was: logKp = -2.55 + 0.65logP - 0.0085MW, R²  = 0.91 (applicability domain for all datasets: MW ranges from 18 to >584 g/mol and -4 to >5 for logP). This approach demonstrates the advantage of combining mechanistic with structural activity relationships in a single modeling approach. This combination approach results in an improved regression fit when compared to permeability estimates obtained using the Potts-Guy approach alone. The analysis presented in this work assumes a one-compartment skin absorption route; future modeling work will consider adding multiple compartments.