Modern zoning plans versus traditional landscape structures: Ecosystem service dynamics and interactions in rapidly...

Cultural landscapes provide abundant and diverse ecosystem services (ES) for human-wellbeing. However, many traditional cultural landscapes worldwide are currently undergoing rapid urbanization. In decision-making concerning sustainable urbanization, tradeoffs frequently occur between different objectives (i.e., between multiple ES) and between different pathways or urbanization strategies (e.g., following modern zoning principles or traditional landscape structures). This study aims to examine the dynamics and interactions between multiple ES under different strategies for the urbanization of cultural landscapes. A case study was conducted in Nansha, China. Three scenarios-business-as-usual, zoning plan-based, and traditional landscape structure-based-were developed to reflect the most common urbanization strategies, each parameterized with identical land-use quantities. Land-use change from 2020 to 2035 under different scenarios was simulated using the PLUS model (integrated Random Forest and Cellular Automata models). The traditional landscape structure-based scenario used the settlement pattern before urbanization to predict the chances of future urban areas' occurrence. Eleven ES indicators were used to examine ES dynamics and interactions in the simulation outcomes. The results showed that the amount of ES provided by the landscape declined and significant tradeoffs occurred between cultural and non-cultural ES. The business-as-usual scenario resulted in the greatest decrease in ES. The zoning plan-based scenario did not offer a significant improvement over the business-as-usual scenario. The traditional landscape structure-based scenario was the most effective in limiting ES decline, which also mitigated the tradeoff between urban development and flood regulation and fostered synergy between urban efficiency and ecotourism opportunity. Based on these findings, we recommend that traditional landscape structures should be emphasized in the development of cultural landscapes.