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A computational cognitive model of behaviors and decisions that modulate pandemic transmission: Expectancy-value,
Peter Pirolli1, Christian Lebiere2, Mark Orr3
1Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, Pensacola, FL, United States.
Abstract:
We present a computational cognitive model that incorporates and formalizes aspects of theories of individual-level behavior change and present simulations of COVID-19 behavioral response that modulates transmission rates. This formalization includes addressing the psychological constructs of attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity. The model yields signature phenomena that appear in the oscillating dynamics of mask wearing and the effective reproduction number, as well as the overall increase of rates of mask-wearing in response to awareness of an ongoing pandemic.
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