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This study introduces quantile regression to quantify uncertainty in deep learning for lesion detection. The novel methods, QR-VAE and BQR, improve accuracy in both unsupervised and supervised settings, crucial for medical diagnosis.

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Area of Science:

  • Machine Learning
  • Medical Image Analysis
  • Deep Learning

Background:

  • Deep learning models can be over-confident, especially with limited data.
  • Quantifying uncertainty is critical for medical applications like lesion detection and diagnosis.
  • Existing Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) methods suffer from variance shrinkage.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose quantile regression for quantifying aleatoric uncertainty in lesion detection.
  • To develop unsupervised (QR-VAE) and supervised (BQR) methods for uncertainty quantification.
  • To improve the reliability of deep learning in critical medical applications.

Main Methods:

  • Quantile regression applied to unsupervised lesion detection using a Variational AutoEncoder (VAE).
  • Developed Quantile-Regression VAE (QR-VAE) to avoid variance shrinkage by directly estimating conditional quantiles.
  • Developed Binary Quantile Regression (BQR) for supervised lesion segmentation.

Main Results:

  • QR-VAE effectively quantifies uncertainty in VAE reconstructions for outlier detection.
  • BQR captures uncertainty in lesion boundaries, reflecting expert disagreement.
  • Both methods enhance lesion detection and segmentation accuracy.

Conclusions:

  • Quantile regression offers a robust approach to aleatoric uncertainty quantification in deep learning for medical imaging.
  • The proposed QR-VAE and BQR methods provide more reliable confidence estimates than standard VAEs.
  • These advancements are vital for trustworthy clinical diagnosis and treatment planning.