Continuity or change? How the onset of COVID-19 affected internal migration in Australia

Despite anecdotal evidence of a COVID-19 induced decline in the intensity of interstate migration in Australia, population-level evidence is limited. The recent release of the 2020 wave of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey provides a unique opportunity to robustly assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the level, direction, determinants, and reasons for migration in Australia. By applying a series of regression models to individual-level longitudinal microdata, and measuring migration at a range of spatial scales, this paper shows that COVID-19 has somewhat accelerated the long-term decline in the intensity of internal migration-particularly for residential mobility, short-distance migration, and migration due to employment and involuntary reasons. The socio-demographic determinants of migration have remained broadly stable, despite a slight increase in the deterring effect of duration of residence and a reduction in the impact of education. Finally, we show that the increase in net migration gains in regional areas is underpinned by a decrease in outflows. Juxtaposing these results with aggregate-level migration statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics from 2021, we conclude that the effect of COVID-19 on internal migration to date has been minimal and is likely to be short-lived. However, it may still be too soon to make a definitive judgement, as shifts in work patterns stemming from the pandemic may further transform the level, direction, and composition of internal migration.