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Goodness-of-fit test for stochastic processes using even empirical moments statistic
Katarzyna Maraj-Zygmąt1, Grzegorz Sikora1, Marcin Pitera2
1Faculty of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wyspianskiego 27, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland.
Abstract:
In this paper, we introduce a novel framework that allows efficient stochastic process discrimination. The underlying test statistic is based on even empirical moments and generalizes the time-averaged mean-squared displacement framework; the test is designed to allow goodness-of-fit statistical testing of processes with stationary increments and a finite-moment distribution. In particular, while our test statistic is based on a simple and intuitive idea, it enables efficient discrimination between finite- and infinite-moment processes even if the underlying laws are relatively close to each other. This claim is illustrated via an extensive simulation study, e.g., where we confront α-stable processes with stability index close to 2 with their standard Gaussian equivalents. For completeness, we also show how to embed our methodology into the real data analysis by studying the real metal price data.
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