Conditional Recurrence-Free Survival After Surgical Resection of Meningioma

Recurrence after meningioma resection warrants serial surveillance imaging, but little evidence guides the optimal time interval between imaging studies/surveillance duration.

To describe recurrence-free survival (RFS) after meningioma resection, conditioned to short-term RFS.

A retrospective cohort study for adults presenting for meningioma resection from 2000 to 2018 was conducted. The primary outcome was postoperative follow-up RFS. Conditional RFS Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed at 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10 years, conditioned to 6-month and 12-month RFS. RFS probabilities conditioned to 6-month RFS were estimated in subgroups, stratified by World Health Organization grade, extent of resection, and need for postoperative radiation.

In total, 723 patients were included. Median age at surgery was 57.4 years (IQR = 47.2-67.2). Median follow-up was 23.5 months (IQR = 12.3-47.8). Recurrence was observed in 90 patients (12%), with median time to recurrence of 14.4 months (IQR = 10.3-37.1). Conditioned to 6-month postoperative RFS, patients had 90.3% probability of remaining recurrence-free at 2 years and 69.4% at 10 years. Subgroup analysis conditioned to 6-month RFS demonstrated grade 1 meningiomas undergoing gross total resection (GTR) had 96.0% probability of RFS at 1 year and 82.8% at 5 years, whereas those undergoing non-GTR had 94.5% and 79.9% probability, respectively. RFS probability was 78.8% at 5 years for non-grade 1 meningiomas undergoing GTR, compared with 69.7% for non-grade 1 meningiomas undergoing non-GTR. Patients with non-grade 1 meningiomas undergoing upfront radiation had a 1-year RFS of 90.1% and 5-year RFS of 51.7%.

Recurrence risk after meningioma resection after an initial recurrence-free period is reported, with high-risk subgroups identified. These results can inform objective shared decision-making for optimal follow-up.