Carbon emission fluctuations of Chinese inter-regional interaction: a network multi-hub diffusion perspective

The "double-carbon" policy is a new opportunity for the transformation of China's production sector. With steady economic growth, each province has proposed specific policies aimed at cleaner production. However, the interactions between regions and the complex linkages between industries have hindered the implementation of the "double-carbon" policy. In order to address this issue, we introduced a complex network framework with multiple industries at a national level. The framework aimed to clarify whether there is fluctuation diffusion in China's multi-province multi-industry carbon emission system, to identify key industries and regions, and to answer the question of "who" is the most effective in governance. The results showed that the fluctuations of industrial carbon emissions had a cross-regional diffusion effect in China indeed. The diffusion capacity of industry fluctuation depends on whether the industry is located at a "hub" position in the network. Hub industries with strong capacity can spread the carbon emission fluctuation of themselves and upstream or downstream industries to the whole country through regional interactions. This characteristic of the hub industry should be taken into account in governance to maximize the effectiveness of emission reduction. Shandong and Inner Mongolia, as important provinces for the production of intermediate products and energy chemicals in China, had a greater role to play in global carbon supply push from their hub industries than in the demand pull. The pulling capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to the national carbon demand side was greater than that of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. These findings might have implications for environmental and economic policymaking, particularly with regard to cross-provincial coordinated systemic solutions and policy anchors for synergy with industries.