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Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries
Clara Calvert1, Meredith Merilee Brockway2, Helga Zoega3,4
1Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Nature Human Behaviour
|February 27, 2023
Summary
Early COVID-19 lockdowns saw modest reductions in preterm births (PTB), averting millions globally. However, the first lockdown month increased stillbirth risk in high-income nations, with Brazil showing sustained increases.
Area of Science:
- Perinatology and Obstetrics
- Epidemiology
- Global Public Health
Background:
- Preterm birth (PTB) is a leading global cause of infant mortality.
- Reported changes in PTB rates during early COVID-19 lockdowns varied significantly across countries.
- Uncertainty existed regarding whether observed PTB variations reflected true lockdown impacts or differences in stillbirth rates and study designs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of early COVID-19 pandemic response measures (lockdowns) on preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth rates.
- To investigate variations in lockdown impacts across different countries and time periods.
- To quantify the number of PTBs averted globally due to observed changes during lockdowns.
Main Methods:
- Utilized interrupted time series and meta-analyses with harmonized data from 52 million births across 26 countries.
- Included 18 countries with representative population-based data, covering PTB rates from 6% to 12% and stillbirth rates from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births.
- Analyzed PTB and stillbirth rates during the first four months of lockdown, comparing them to pre-lockdown periods.
Main Results:
- Observed small but statistically significant reductions in PTB during the first three months of lockdown (OR 0.96-0.97), with no significant change in the fourth month.
- Found an increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (OR 1.14).
- Identified sustained increased stillbirth risk in Brazil during months two through four of lockdown (OR 1.09-1.12).
Conclusions:
- Early pandemic lockdowns led to modest reductions in preterm births, translating to millions of averted PTBs globally.
- Lockdowns were associated with an increased stillbirth risk in specific contexts, notably in high-income countries during the initial phase and persistently in Brazil.
- Further research is warranted to elucidate the causal pathways underlying these observed associations between lockdowns, preterm birth, and stillbirth.

