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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Previous projections indicated consistent river flow increases from Asian Water Towers under climate change.
  • The Tibetan Plateau is a critical water source for major Asian rivers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate non-monotonic changes in river flows from the Tibetan Plateau under different global warming levels (1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C).
  • To identify the key drivers influencing river flow alterations for major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized an observation-constrained hydrological model.
  • Simulated river flow changes under various warming scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Annual mean streamflow changes varied: a decrease of 0.1-3.2% at 1.5°C warming and an increase of 1.5-12% at 3.0°C warming for seven major rivers.
  • Flow changes for the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, and Ganges were primarily driven by rainfall.
  • Flow changes for the Mekong, Salween, and Indus were influenced by rainfall, snowmelt, and glacier melt dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Reduced river flows in a moderately warmed climate (1.5°C) pose a significant threat to water security in downstream regions.
  • Increased river flows and elevated flood risks are anticipated with further temperature increases over the Tibetan Plateau.