Reducing societal impacts of SARS-CoV-2 interventions through subnational implementation

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy
• Computational Modeling

Background:

• Nation-wide non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for SARS-CoV-2 caused significant socio-economic disruption.
• Subnational NPI implementation may offer a balance between epidemiological control and societal impact.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the potential of subnational NPIs for managing the first COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands.
• To develop a high-resolution framework for analyzing spatially explicit epidemic dynamics.

Main Methods:

• Developed a dynamic, individual-contact based epidemiological model.
• Stratified the population by demographics and incorporated spatial data.
• Calibrated the model using hospital admission data and mobile phone-derived mobility trends.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated that a subnational approach could achieve comparable epidemiological control to nation-wide measures.
• Identified scenarios where specific regions could remain open longer while maintaining control.
• The framework successfully modeled disease spread and intervention impact at a high resolution.

Conclusions:

• Subnational epidemic control strategies are a viable alternative to nation-wide lockdowns.
• This approach can mitigate socio-economic consequences while ensuring public health.
• The developed framework is adaptable for policy development in other countries and future epidemics.