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Issues And Trends In Healthcare Delivery System01:29

Issues And Trends In Healthcare Delivery System

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The issues and trends in healthcare delivery are constantly changing. The COVID-19 pandemic is one recent issue that wreaked havoc on healthcare systems, causing a shortage of healthcare workers, high demand for medicines and supplies, and increased medical expenditure due to a lack of insurance. Other issues include rising healthcare costs and care fragmentation.
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At the different levels of the healthcare system, we see varying methods of healthcare used. These methods include managed care systems, case management, and primary healthcare.
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Preventive healthcare services keep people healthy via frequent check-ups, screening, and counseling. They primarily aid in disease prevention rather than treating an acute or chronic illness. Preventive treatment also keeps individuals productive and energetic, allowing them to work well into their retirement years. Examples of preventive care services include:
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COVID-19 Vaccination and Healthcare Demand.

Matthew I Betti1, Amira Hassan Abouleish1, Victoria Spofford2

  • 1Mathematics and Computer Science, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB, Canada.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|March 17, 2023
PubMed
Summary

This study models healthcare demand during epidemics, forecasting the impact of easing public health measures and vaccination rates on hospital capacity. Findings aid in managing healthcare resources during public health crises.

Keywords:
COVID-19Healthcare demandPublic health mitigationVaccination

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Health Services Research
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Epidemics like COVID-19 strain healthcare systems, overwhelming hospitals and ICUs.
  • Public health interventions reduce disease incidence but are not a sole long-term solution.
  • Vaccination is crucial for sustainable control and mitigating healthcare demand.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a two-module model forecasting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccine uptake on daily disease incidence.
  • To predict the cascading effects of projected caseloads on healthcare demand, including hospitalizations and ICU occupancy.
  • To estimate healthcare resource utilization, such as doctor visits, occupied beds, ICU beds, and excess demand.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a two-module forecasting model: an epidemiological module and a healthcare module.
  • The epidemiological module simulates disease incidence considering NPIs, their relaxation, and vaccination.
  • The healthcare module uses incidence forecasts to predict healthcare demand metrics and length of stay in intensive care units (ICUs).

Main Results:

  • The model forecasts daily incidence and healthcare demand through Fall 2021.
  • It quantifies potential strain on healthcare resources, including doctor visits, hospital beds, and ICU beds.
  • The model can estimate excess healthcare demand and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay.

Conclusions:

  • The developed model provides a framework for forecasting epidemic-related healthcare demand.
  • It highlights the interplay between public health measures, vaccination, and healthcare system capacity.
  • The study uses Canadian provinces as a case study for model verification and application.