Assessing Future Climate Change Impacts on Potato Yields - A Case Study for Prince Edward Island, Canada

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Change Research
• Food Security Studies

Background:

• Climate change poses a significant threat to global crop production and food security.
• Prince Edward Island (PEI), a major Canadian potato producer, faces increasing instability in its agricultural sector due to climate variability.
• Local farmers and stakeholders are concerned about the long-term viability of potato farming under changing climate conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate future potato yields in PEI using the DSSAT potato model under various CMIP6 climate scenarios.
• To evaluate the combined impacts of altered temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on potato production.
• To inform the development of climate adaptation strategies for sustainable potato farming in PEI.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) potato model for yield simulations.
• Employed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios, including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5.
• Assessed the effects of projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2 levels on local potato yields.

Main Results:

• Simulations predict substantial declines in PEI potato yields under current farming practices across all emission scenarios.
• Under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), yields are projected to decrease by 48-60% by the 2070s and 63-80% by the 2090s.
• Even under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6), potato yields are expected to decline by 6-10%.

Conclusions:

• Current farming practices are insufficient to maintain potato production levels in PEI under projected climate change.
• Urgent development and implementation of effective climate adaptation measures are necessary.
• Strategies such as adjusting farming practices and incorporating supplemental irrigation are crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability of PEI's potato industry.