Enhancing Shelf Life Prediction of Fresh Pizza with Regression Models and Low Cost Sensors
Paul Wunderlich1, Daniel Pauli2, Michael Neumaier2
1inIT-Institute Industrial IT, OWL University of Applied Sciences and Arts, 32657 Lemgo, Germany.
Abstract:
The waste of food presents a challenge for achieving a sustainable world. In Germany alone, over 10 million tonnes of food are discarded annually, with a worldwide total exceeding 1.3 billion tonnes. A significant contributor to this issue are consumers throwing away still edible food due to the expiration of its best-before date. Best-before dates currently include large safety margins, but more precise and cost effective prediction techniques are required. To address this challenge, research was conducted on low-cost sensors and machine learning techniques were developed to predict the spoilage of fresh pizza. The findings indicate that combining a gas sensor, such as volatile organic compounds or carbon dioxide, with a random forest or extreme gradient boosting regressor can accurately predict the day of spoilage. This provides a more accurate and cost-efficient alternative to current best-before date determination methods, reducing food waste, saving resources, and improving food safety by reducing the risk of consumers consuming spoiled food.
Related Concept Videos
Key Elements for Plant Nutrition
Physical Methods for Controlling Microbial Growth: Temperature
Microbial Growth Measurement: Indirect Methods
Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
Regression Toward the Mean
Regression Analysis
In regression analysis, a regression equation is determined based on the line of best fit– a line that best fits the data points plotted in a graph. This line is also called the regression line. The algebraic equation for the regression line is called the regression equation. It is represented as:


