The multistability of predictive technology in nuclear disasters.

Area of Science:

• Science and Technology Studies (STS)
• Postphenomenology
• Human-Technology Interaction

Background:

• Postphenomenology analyzes human-world relations mediated by technology.
• Predictive technologies present unique challenges as future experiences are inaccessible.
• The System for the Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (SPEEDI) is a Japanese nuclear emergency simulation tool.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conceptualize 'pre-spectival focus' for analyzing human interaction with predictive technologies.
• To examine the socio-technical controversy surrounding SPEEDI's use during the Fukushima disaster.
• To explore how different actor-networks enroll SPEEDI in nuclear emergency management.

Main Methods:

• Conceptualization of 'pre-spectival focus' building on postphenomenology.
• Application of Actor-Network Theory (ANT) to understand SPEEDI's socio-technical entanglements.
• Analysis of bibliographic surveys and interviews regarding SPEEDI's usage.

Main Results:

• Identified four multistable uses of SPEEDI: advice, drills, self-protection, and misunderstanding.
• Demonstrated how diverse 'pre-spectival foci' shape actor perceptions of nuclear disaster predictions.
• Revealed a rivalry between 'social control' and 'self-determination' networks in SPEEDI's enrollment.

Conclusions:

• Actor perceptions and uses of predictive technology are shaped by their 'pre-spectival focus' and associated life-forms.
• SPEEDI's enrollment in different networks highlights tensions between passive compliance and autonomous decision-making in emergencies.
• Findings offer a framework for future postphenomenology-ANT studies on predictive technologies.