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Incorporating learning into direct policy search for flood risk management.

Jingya Wang1, David R Johnson1,2

  • 1School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.

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|April 8, 2023
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces adaptive direct policy search (DPS) to improve system management. The new method enhances policy performance by learning from changing conditions, significantly reducing flood damage in dike heightening scenarios.

Keywords:
adaptive learningdeep uncertaintydirect policy searchflood risk management

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Management
  • Decision Science
  • Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

  • Direct policy search (DPS) optimizes system management rules for changing conditions.
  • Standard DPS optimizes policies based on average performance across potential future states of the world (SOW).

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce an adaptive learning approach to enhance Direct Policy Search (DPS).
  • Develop 'metapolicies' that dynamically switch between DPS-identified policies based on updated beliefs about the SOW.
  • Apply the adaptive method to optimize dike heightening for cost and flood damage reduction.

Main Methods:

  • Implemented standard DPS with varying weights for SOWs to identify multiple policies.
  • Developed adaptive metapolicies to switch between these policies based on updated SOW likelihoods.
  • Evaluated the adaptive algorithm using a case study on efficient dike heightening.

Main Results:

  • Adaptive DPS significantly improved performance over standard DPS in dike heightening.
  • Achieved an average marginal damage reduction of 35.1% for policies with similar costs.
  • Performance improvements were most pronounced in SOWs with lower sea level rise.

Conclusions:

  • Adaptive learning enhances direct policy search for dynamic system management.
  • The proposed method effectively balances system costs and flood damage under changing environmental conditions.
  • The adaptive approach offers a robust strategy for climate change adaptation, such as sea level rise management.