Increasing Rates of Pancreatic and Hepatocellular Cancers Parallel Increasing Obesity Rates

Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are now the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States, and six are convincingly associated with obesity. We interrogate the association of a state's obesity prevalence with cancer incidence.

We use data from US Cancer Statistics for each of the 6 cancers of interest from 2011 to 2018. Age-adjusted incidences were calculated, and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was used to identify prevalence of obesity in each state. A generalized estimating equation model was used to relate the rate of cancer with the rate of obesity.

Increased state-level prevalence of obesity was significantly associated with increasing state-level incidence of pancreatic and hepatocellular cancers. The rate of colorectal cancer was not associated with increasing obesity in 2011-2014 but from 2015 to 2018 was inversely associated with increasing rates of obesity. State-level prevalence of obesity was not associated with esophageal, gastric, or gallbladder cancers.

Weight management interventions may reduce risk of pancreatic and hepatocellular cancers.