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A framework to assess potential health system resilience using fuzzy logic
Alessandro Jatobá1, Paula de Castro Nunes1, Paulo V R de Carvalho2
1Centro de Estudos Estratégicos Antônio Ivo de Carvalho Fundação Oswaldo Cruz Rio de Janeiro Brazil Centro de Estudos Estratégicos Antônio Ivo de Carvalho, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Public health systems’ resilience potential was assessed using a novel framework. Lower pre-pandemic resilience scores correlated with greater COVID-19 impact, highlighting areas for system improvement.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Health Systems Research
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Assessing public health system resilience is crucial for managing health crises.
- The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities in global health systems.
- A standardized framework is needed to evaluate health system resilience potential.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a framework for assessing public health system resilience.
- To quantify the resilient potential of health systems before the COVID-19 pandemic.
- To compare pre-pandemic resilience potential with actual pandemic performance.
Main Methods:
- Developed a framework using quantitative and qualitative data from Brazilian health authorities.
- Employed fuzzy logic to create a mathematical model for scoring resilient abilities (monitoring, anticipation, learning, response).
- Calculated a coefficient of resilient potential in healthcare using pre-pandemic data and compared it with COVID-19 performance in 10 Brazilian cities.
Main Results:
- Cities severely affected by COVID-19 exhibited lower pre-pandemic resilient potential.
- While some systems had strong response capabilities, underdeveloped abilities hindered COVID-19 management.
- The framework identified specific weaknesses in public health system resilience.
Conclusions:
- The coefficient of resilient potential in healthcare effectively identifies areas for improvement in public health systems.
- Regular assessment of resilience potential can guide continuous improvement and strengthen health system functionality during crises.
- The framework is adaptable to various contexts and levels within public health systems.
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