Preoperative prediction of macrotrabecular-massive hepatocellular carcinoma through dynamic contrast-enhanced...

Macrotrabecular-massive hepatocellular carcinoma (MTM-HCC) is closely related to aggressive phenotype, gene mutation, carcinogenic pathway, and immunohistochemical markers and is a strong independent predictor of early recurrence and poor prognosis. With the development of imaging technology, successful applications of contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been reported in identifying the MTM-HCC subtype. Radiomics, as an objective and beneficial method for tumour evaluation, is used to convert medical images into high-throughput quantification features that greatly push the development of precision medicine.

To establish and verify a nomogram for preoperatively identifying MTM-HCC by comparing different machine learning algorithms.

This retrospective study enrolled 232 (training set, 162; test set, 70) hepatocellular carcinoma patients from April 2018 to September 2021. A total of 3111 radiomics features were extracted from dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, followed by dimension reduction of these features. Logistic regression (LR), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), Bayes, Tree, and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms were used to select the best radiomics signature. We used the relative standard deviation (RSD) and bootstrap methods to quantify the stability of these five algorithms. The algorithm with the lowest RSD represented the best stability, and it was used to construct the best radiomics model. Multivariable logistic analysis was used to select the useful clinical and radiological features, and different predictive models were established. Finally, the predictive performances of the different models were assessed by evaluating the area under the curve (AUC).

The RSD values based on LR, KNN, Bayes, Tree, and SVM were 3.8%, 8.6%, 4.3%, 17.7%, and 17.4%, respectively. Therefore, the LR machine learning algorithm was selected to construct the best radiomics signature, which performed well with AUCs of 0.766 and 0.739 in the training and test sets, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, age [odds ratio (OR) = 0.956, P = 0.034], alpha-fetoprotein (OR = 10.066, P < 0.001), tumour size (OR = 3.316, P = 0.002), tumour-to-liver apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) ratio (OR = 0.156, P = 0.037), and radiomics score (OR = 2.923, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of MTM-HCC. Among the different models, the predictive performances of the clinical-radiomics model and radiological-radiomics model were significantly improved compared to those of the clinical model (AUCs: 0.888 vs 0.836, P = 0.046) and radiological model (AUCs: 0.796 vs 0.688, P = 0.012), respectively, in the training set, highlighting the improved predictive performance of radiomics. The nomogram performed best, with AUCs of 0.896 and 0.805 in the training and test sets, respectively.

The nomogram containing radiomics, age, alpha-fetoprotein, tumour size, and tumour-to-liver ADC ratio revealed excellent predictive ability in preoperatively identifying the MTM-HCC subtype.