[Analysis of Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors in China Based on City Scale]

Assessing regional carbon emissions and their relationship with socio-economic conditions is very important for developing strategies for carbon emission reduction. This study explored the impact of the proportion of non-fossil energy, the land development degree, the urbanization rate of permanent residents, the proportion of secondary industry, per capita GDP, and per capita construction land area on per capita CO₂ emissions in 339 prefecture-level and above cities in China (excluding some cities in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan). A Bayesian belief network modeling carbon emissions was constructed to identify the global effects of various factors on per capita CO₂ emissions, and multiscale geographically weighted regression was used to analyze their local effects. The results showed that first, per capita CO₂ emissions of cities in China increased from the south to the north and decreased from the eastern coast to the inland region. Second, globally, the sensitivity of per capita CO₂ emissions to various factors from high to low was in the order of per capita construction land area>per capita GDP>urbanization rate of permanent residents>land development degree>proportion of secondary industry>proportion of non-fossil energy. Third, locally, the direction of the spatial relationship between each factor and per capita CO₂ emissions was consistent with the global relationship, and there was spatial heterogeneity in the strength of the relationship. Finally, clean energy, decarbonization technologies, saving and intensive use of land, and green living were effective ways to achieve the dual-carbon goal.