Coupling coordination of new urbanization in Chinese urban agglomeration-characteristics and driving factors

The coordinated development of new urbanization (NU) in urban agglomerations (UAs) is key for promoting sustainable urban development and the way to achieve Chinese-style modernization. Based on the mechanisms of coupling and coordination of NU, the internal subsystem coupling coordination of NU was deconstructed into five dimensions-economic, population, land, social, and ecological. Using 200 cities in 19 Chinese UAs areas, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of NU (CCDNU) were analyzed, and the driving factors were analyzed from both spatial spillover effect and stratification heterogeneity. The results are as follows: (1) CCDNU has increased from moderate disorder to barely coordinated, exhibiting a spatial distribution of a higher CCDNU in the east and lower CCDNU in the west with a positive global spatial autocorrelation feature; (2) economic drive, population concentration, spatial carrying capacity, and environmental quality play facilitating roles in the CCDNU of the study region, while the spatial carrying capacity, quality of life, and environmental quality inhibit the CCDNU of neighboring regions. From the decomposition of long- and short-term effects, both direct and indirect effects of driving factors were found to accumulate significantly over time. In addition, the model results were robust after replacing the geographic distance weight matrix and excluding the extreme values; (3) the spatial carrying capacity, population concentration, and economic drive are the dominant factors affecting the CCDNU in China. The dominant driving factors of are different in different regions. Meanwhile, the interaction detection shows that the interaction of each driver exhibits a two-factor enhancement or non-linear enhancement. Based on these results, corresponding policies are recommended.