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Uncertainty in non-CO
Mathijs Harmsen1,2, Charlotte Tabak3, Lena Höglund-Isaksson4
1PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands. mathijs.harmsen@pbl.nl.
Nature Communications
|June 2, 2023
Summary
Mitigating non-CO2 greenhouse gases (NCGGs) is crucial for climate policy, but uncertainty in NCGG mitigation potential impacts reaching Paris Agreement goals. This study quantifies NCGG mitigation uncertainty, revealing challenges for climate targets.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Policy
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Background:
- Non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation is vital for achieving global climate policy objectives, including the Paris Agreement goals.
- Significant uncertainties in NCGG mitigation potential pose challenges to climate modeling and policy development.
- Accurate assessment of NCGG mitigation is essential for evaluating the feasibility of limiting global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically estimate the total uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation.
- To develop 'optimistic', 'default', and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves.
- To assess the implications of NCGG mitigation uncertainty for global climate targets.
Main Methods:
- A comprehensive literature review of NCGG mitigation options was conducted.
- Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves were developed for optimistic, default, and pessimistic scenarios.
- The impact of MAC uncertainty on climate targets, carbon budgets, and policy costs was analyzed.
Main Results:
- The 1.5-degree climate target is unattainable under pessimistic MAC assumptions.
- The 2-degree climate target may be unachievable under high emission scenarios.
- MAC uncertainty results in a projected 40-58% range in relative NCGG reduction, a ±120 Gt CO2 uncertainty in carbon budget, and ±16% uncertainty in policy costs for a 2-degree scenario.
Conclusions:
- NCGG mitigation uncertainty significantly impacts the feasibility of achieving climate policy goals.
- A substantial portion of MAC uncertainty reflects technical limitations rather than solely a gap for human innovation.
- Addressing NCGG mitigation uncertainty is critical for effective climate change mitigation strategies.
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