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Rethinking fiscal rules.

Luis Carranza-Ugarte1, Julián Díaz-Saavedra2, Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez3

  • 1Instituto de Gobierno y Gestión Pública Universidad San Martín de Porres, Martín Dulanto 101, Miraflores 15047 Lima, Peru.

Journal of Comparative Economics
|June 26, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Fiscal rules are crucial for post-pandemic recovery. Implementing structural fiscal rules that preserve public investment enhances economic growth and welfare more effectively than rules based on realized budget balance.

Keywords:
Debt limitsFiscal policyInfrastructurePublic deficitPublic spending

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Public Finance
  • Macroeconomics

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted government finances, increasing fiscal deficits globally.
  • Fiscal rules are expected to be central to post-pandemic economic recovery strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the impact of various fiscal rules on welfare, public spending, and economic growth.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of different fiscal rule designs in a small, open economy context.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a general equilibrium, overlapping generations model.
  • Calibration of the model to the Peruvian economy, known for successful fiscal rule implementation.

Main Results:

  • Fiscal rules that control fiscal outcomes while preserving public investment yield better economic output.
  • Structural fiscal rules generally outperform rules based on realized budget balance.

Conclusions:

  • Preserving public investment is key for effective fiscal rules in economic recovery.
  • Structural fiscal rules offer superior economic performance compared to budget balance-based rules.