Seismic risk assessment and hotspots prioritization: a developing country perspective.

Area of Science:

• Disaster Management
• Seismology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Natural disasters increasingly threaten human survival, economic growth, and sustainable development.
• Earthquakes cause significant destruction, particularly in developing countries with limited resources and reactive disaster management.
• Ineffective resource management and lack of unified action plans hinder disaster response and recovery efforts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a methodology for identifying seismic risk hotspots and prioritizing pre- and post-disaster management actions.
• To focus on the specific challenges faced by developing countries in managing earthquake impacts.
• To provide a quantitative risk assessment framework for informed decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Conducting a thorough seismic risk assessment.
• Developing a methodology for rapid risk assessment against various scenarios.
• Quantifying repercussions including physical damage, casualties, economic losses, and shelter needs.

Main Results:

• The methodology enables rapid quantitative risk assessment for diverse disaster scenarios.
• Identifies hotspots for targeted pre- and post-disaster management interventions.
• Provides estimates of physical damage, casualties, economic losses, displaced households, debris, shelter requirements, and hospital functionality.

Conclusions:

• The developed methodology serves as a decision support tool for government agencies, emergency organizations, and aiding countries.
• It facilitates the formulation of policies and plans to enhance community resilience in resource-constrained settings.
• Prioritizing actions based on quantitative impact estimates maximizes the effectiveness of disaster management efforts.