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Optimal interventional policy based on discrete-time fuzzy rules equivalent model utilizing with COVID-19 pandemic
1Department of Robotic and Advanced Manufacturing, CINVESTAV-IPN, No. 1062, Parque Industrial Ramos Arizpe, Ramos Arizpe, Coah., C.P. 25903 Mexico.
International Journal of Machine Learning and Cybernetics
|June 26, 2023
Summary
This study models the COVID-19 pandemic in Coahuila, Mexico, using fuzzy logic. An optimal interventional policy, including vaccination and detection, can eradicate the virus within 8 weeks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Control Theory
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presents ongoing public health challenges.
- Accurate modeling is crucial for effective pandemic response.
- Previous models may not fully capture real-world complexities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a discrete-time mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic.
- To determine an optimal interventional policy for pandemic control.
- To analyze the impact of interventions on hospitalization rates.
Main Methods:
- Formulation of a mathematical model fitted to COVID-19 data from Coahuila, Mexico (June-October 2022).
- Utilization of fuzzy rules emulated networks to derive discrete-time systems from daily hospitalization data.
- Development of a main theorem for closed-loop system performance guarantee using approximate functions.
Main Results:
- The proposed interventional policy, incorporating precautionary measures, detection, and vaccination, can eradicate the pandemic in 1-8 weeks.
- Implementation of the policy within the first 3 weeks ensures hospitalization numbers remain below capacity.
- Fuzzy rule-based systems effectively model pandemic dynamics.
Conclusions:
- An integrated interventional strategy is effective in controlling and potentially eradicating COVID-19.
- Early implementation of control measures is critical for managing healthcare system load.
- Mathematical modeling with fuzzy logic provides a robust framework for epidemiological analysis and policy optimization.
Keywords:
COVID-19Discrete-time SEAIHR modelFuzzy rules emulated networksInterventional policyOptimal controlMore Related Videos
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