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Human mobility and disease prevalence.

Yuan Lou1, Rachidi B Salako2, Pengfei Song3,4

  • 1School of Mathematical Sciences, CMA-Shanghai and MOE-LSC, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Human mobility significantly impacts disease spread. Increased movement of infected individuals relative to susceptible ones can decrease overall prevalence, but complex spatial factors influence epidemic severity.

Keywords:
Asymptotic behaviorDisease prevalenceInfectious diseaseMobilityReaction-diffusion system

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Human mobility patterns are crucial factors influencing infectious disease dynamics.
  • Understanding the interplay between population movement and disease prevalence is essential for effective epidemic control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the quantitative relationship between human mobility (modeled as diffusion rates) and endemic disease prevalence.
  • To analyze how spatial heterogeneity in disease parameters affects this relationship.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a diffusive epidemic model to study the dependence of infected population size on diffusion rates.
  • Employed theoretical analysis and numerical simulations to explore various scenarios of spatial heterogeneity.

Main Results:

  • For small diffusion rates, total infected population size decreases as the infected-to-susceptible diffusion ratio increases.
  • Spatial heterogeneity in disease parameters leads to complex, non-monotonic relationships between diffusion rates and infected population size, with optima at intermediate or large diffusion rates depending on parameter homogeneity.

Conclusions:

  • Human mobility, specifically diffusion rates, plays a critical role in shaping epidemic outcomes.
  • The spatial distribution of disease characteristics significantly modulates the impact of mobility on disease prevalence and severity.