Prediction of Future Medical Costs by Modifiable Measures of Health

Strategies to mitigate rising health-care costs are a priority for patients, employers, and health insurers. Yet gaps currently exist in whether health risk assessment can forecast medical claims costs. This study examined the ability of a health quotient (HQ) based on modifiable risk factors, age, sex, and chronic conditions to predict future medical claims spending.

The study included 18,695 employees and adult dependents who participated in health assessments and were enrolled in an employer-sponsored health plan. Linear mixed effect models stratified by chronic conditions and adjusted for age and sex were utilized to evaluate the relationship between the health quotient (score of 0-100) and future medical claims spending.

Lower baseline health quotient was associated with higher medical claims cost over 2 years of follow up. For participants with chronic condition(s), costs were $3628 higher for those with a low health quotient (<73; N = 2673) compared to those with high health quotient (>85; N = 1045), after adjustment for age and sex (P value = 0.004). Each one-unit increase in health quotient was associated with a decrease of $154 (95% CI: 87.4, 220.3) in average yearly medical claims costs during follow up.

This study used a large employee population with 2 years of follow-up data, which provides insights that are applicable to other large employers. Results of this analysis contribute to our ability to predict health-care costs using modifiable aspects of health, objective laboratory testing and chronic condition status.