Hazard-rate analysis in state I malignant melanoma

Hazard-rate analysis provides a unique means of assessing prognosis in patients with malignant disease. The hazard rate is the probability of a patient dying within a particular unit of time after definitive therapy. Hazard-rate analysis was performed on a series of 719 consecutive patients with clinical stage I cutaneous malignant melanoma (MM). The peak hazard rate for death from metastatic MM occurred during the 48th month of follow-up. Thereafter, the hazard rate declined and approached zero by the 120th month. When the patients were stratified by the thickness of their primary MM, thicker lesions reached their peak hazard-rate month earlier than thinner lesions. We conclude that after 120-month survival, the risk of dying from MM is virtually zero. However, since rare late deaths from MM occur, lifetime follow-up is recommended.