Modelling framework to evaluate societal effects of ecosystem management

Area of Science:

• Ecosystem-based management
• Environmental policy
• Social-ecological systems analysis

Background:

• Ecosystem models predict management impacts but often ignore societal consequences.
• Environmental status desirability is typically defined by policy objectives, not stakeholder values.
• Societal impacts of environmental status can vary significantly among different stakeholder groups.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce and demonstrate a method for evaluating ecosystem management alternatives considering stakeholder experiential values.
• To integrate ecosystem model outputs with stakeholder preferences for a comprehensive decision-support framework.
• To assess how different management strategies affect various stakeholder groups in the Baltic Sea.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model to simulate ecosystem responses to management and climate scenarios.
• Incorporated stakeholder values through a questionnaire to define objectives for ecosystem states.
• Employed a Bayesian decision support model to combine ecosystem simulations and stakeholder preferences.

Main Results:

• A moderate climate scenario combined with strict fisheries and nutrient loading management yielded the highest benefits for all surveyed stakeholders.
• The study identified specific management options that maximize benefits across diverse stakeholder groups.
• Demonstrated that different stakeholder groups can benefit from distinct management choices.

Conclusions:

• The developed method effectively evaluates management alternatives by incorporating stakeholder values, leading to more inclusive decision-making.
• This approach provides a framework for comparing management options based on their socio-ecological benefits.
• Findings highlight the importance of considering stakeholder preferences for achieving effective and equitable ecosystem management.