Development and Validation of a New Clinical Diagnostic Screening Model for Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women

Age and weight are not only strong predictive parameters for osteoporosis diagnosis but can also be easily acquired from patients. This study aimed to develop and validate a new diagnostic screening model for postmenopausal osteoporosis that uses only 2 parameters, viz., age and weight. The discriminative ability of the model was analyzed and compared with that of the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) index.

The age-weight diagnostic screening model was developed using a retrospective chart review of postmenopausal women aged ≥50 years who underwent dual energy X-ray absorptiometry at a tertiary hospital from November 2017 to April 2022. Logistic regression analysis was used to derive a diagnostic screening model for osteoporosis.

A total of 533 postmenopausal women were included in the study. According to the highest Youden index value, a probability cut-off value of 0.298 was used in the diagnosis screening model at any site, which yielded a sensitivity of 84.3% and a specificity of 53.8%. For increased sensitivity as a screening tool, a cut-off value of 0.254 was proposed to obtain a sensitivity of 90.2% and a specificity of 42.2%. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves from all screening models were significantly higher than those from the OSTA index model (p<0.05).

This study showed the feasibility of a postmenopausal osteoporosis diagnostic screening model that uses 2 strong predictors for osteoporosis diagnosis: age and weight. This age-weight diagnostic model is a simple, effective option in postmenopausal osteoporosis screening.