Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases ($-45\%$) in the North Atlantic but increases ($+15\%$) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean's meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.