The Forgotten Middle: Worsening Health And Economic Trends Extend To Americans With Modest Resources Nearing...

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Health Economics
• Sociology of Aging

Background:

• Aging US population necessitates understanding future senior challenges.
• Economic and health disparities among older adults are a growing concern.

Purpose of the Study:

• Analyze health and economic well-being trends for Americans in their mid-fifties.
• Examine outcome disparities between lower-middle and upper-middle economic groups over time.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation.
• Analyzed data from five cohorts (1994-2018) from the Health and Retirement Study.
• Projected mortality, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health expenditures, income, and benefits.

Main Results:

• Outcome disparities between lower-middle and upper-middle economic groups widened significantly.
• Quality-adjusted life expectancy increased 5% for the upper-middle group but stagnated for the lower-middle group.
• Combined wealth and future resources grew 13% for the upper-middle group vs. 3% for the lower-middle group.

Conclusions:

• The lower-middle economic group, termed the "forgotten middle," faces stagnating well-being.
• This group may require enhanced support systems to address widening outcome disparities.
• Policy interventions are needed to improve the prospects of near-retirees in the lower-middle economic strata.