How climate change may shift power demand in Japan: Insights from data-driven analysis

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Research
• Energy Systems Analysis

Background:

• Climate change poses risks to Japan's power grid and contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Understanding the interplay between climate variables, human activities, and power demand is crucial for energy policy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project future changes in power demand, carbon intensity, and CO2 emissions in Japan under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios.
• To analyze the regional and seasonal disparities in climate change impacts on the Japanese power sector.

Main Methods:

• Trained random forest models using daily power data, climate variables, heat stress indices, and human activity levels across ten Japanese regions.
• Utilized three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) to estimate future power demand and CO2 emissions from 2020-2100.

Main Results:

• Power demand sensitivity to global warming varies regionally, with extreme climate regions showing greater impact.
• Warming trends lead to decreased winter power demand in cold regions but can increase summer demand in hot regions, potentially causing grid strain in shoulder seasons (May, June, Sept, Oct).
• Net annual CO2 emissions are projected to decrease overall, except in Okinawa, though carbon intensity changes may alter trends in some areas.

Conclusions:

• Climate change significantly influences Japan's energy demand and CO2 emissions, with regional variations necessitating tailored adaptation strategies.
• The combined effects of climate change and socioeconomic factors, particularly under SSP585, amplify impacts on total CO2 emissions.
• Findings offer insights into global energy demand and CO2 emission variations driven by climate change.