Continuous allocation: The problem with EPTS and pediatric kidney candidates

The 2014 Kidney Allocation System (KAS) introduced longevity matching for adult candidates using the Estimated Post-Transplant Survival (EPTS) score, which includes candidate age, time on dialysis, diabetes status, and number of previous solid organ transplants. The proposed continuous distribution framework may expand the use of this attribute to pediatric candidates, but there is no data on its performance among pediatric kidney transplant recipients.

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 6800 pediatric kidney transplant recipients from 2001 to 2011 using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) data. EPTS score was calculated for each patient and compared to reported patient survival to estimate the validity of the score in children.

The median age of patients was 14.01 years (IQR 9.29-16.37 years), and dialysis vintage was 0.67 years (IQR 0-1.82 years). 18.2% of the cohort had a prior transplant and 1% had diabetes. Median EPTS score was 2 (IQR 1-2). Seven percent of patients died during the study period and 54.7% of the cohort was censored prior to 10 years. The c-statistic was 0.505 (95% CI: 0.49-0.53).

Overall, EPTS is not a valid predictor of patient survival among pediatric kidney transplant recipients.