Evaluation of a decision support system using Bayesian network modeling in an applied Multi-INT surveillance
Mary E Frame1, Barbara Acker-Mills1, Anna Maresca1
1Research and Development Department, Parallax Advanced Research, Beavercreek, Ohio.
Summary
Decision Support Systems (DSS) improve intelligence analysis by aiding sensemaking and prediction. Numerical probability displays in DSS enhanced analyst accuracy and speed compared to verbal labels.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Science
- Intelligence Analysis
- Decision Support Systems
Background:
- Sensemaking and decision-making are critical in Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) for predicting adversarial events.
- Analysts integrate multi-source information over extended periods, requiring robust mental models for accurate predictions.
- Decision Support Systems (DSS) are explored to enhance analyst decision-making by automating complex calculations and providing recommendations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of two simulated Decision Support Systems (DSS) as prediction-assistive tools.
- To assess the impact of DSS on the speed and accuracy of intelligence analysis.
- To compare the efficacy of numerical versus verbal probability displays within DSS.
Main Methods:
- Participants engaged in a simulated multi-day, multi-source intelligence task.
- Two DSS, informed by a Bayesian Network Model, were tested against a control group.
- Predictions regarding five potential outcomes were made daily by participants.
Main Results:
- Participants using DSS achieved correct solutions significantly faster than the control group.
- DSS usage increased the proportion of participants reaching the correct conclusion by 36-44%.
- Numerical probability displays in DSS were superior to verbal labels in differentiating unlikely outcomes.
Conclusions:
- Decision Support Systems significantly enhance intelligence analysis efficiency and accuracy.
- Numerical probability representations in DSS improve the discernment of low-probability events.
- DSS, particularly with numerical displays, offer a valuable advancement for intelligence sensemaking and prediction.
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