Plastic pollution from takeaway food industry in China

China's takeaway food industry is growing rapidly, and bringing unprecedented demand for plastic packaging, which results in serious plastic pollution and increasing emissions of plasticizers of phthalate esters (PAEs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study assesses the current and future situation of plastic usage for takeaway food packaging in China, and also analyzes the PAEs and GHG emissions brought by these plastics under different scenarios. From 2010 to 2020, the plastic usage grew from 2.92 to 101 × 10⁴ tons, and brought 112-3845 kg PAEs and 43.6-1438 kt CO₂e GHG emissions. Their distribution exhibited a clear 'two-line' pattern: higher features mostly located in Beijing-Guangzhou and Beijing-Shanghai railways. The socio-economic factors model performed better than the growth rate model for plastic usage prediction from 2021 to 2060. It is predicted that 40.6 Mt. plastic would be consumed in 2060, and they will bring 155 tons PAEs and 37.0 Mt. CO₂e GHGs. At that time, biodegradable plastic replaced or plastic cycling cannot significantly contribute to national carbon reduction, unless using a temperature change of 2 °C scenario. Our work improves the understanding of PAEs and GHG emission from plastic pollution, and provides insight into long-term dynamics in the plastics management of takeaway food industry.