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Published on: March 24, 2017
The Impact of Preventive Treatment for Multidrug- and Rifampin-Resistant Tuberculosis Exceeds Trial-Based Estimates
Parastu Kasaie1, Jeff Pennington1, Amita Gupta2
1Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Preventing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in households is possible with MDR-TB preventive treatment (TPT). Long-term benefits, including reduced transmission and active case finding, significantly exceed trial results.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Clinical trials for tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) in contacts of multidrug- or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) patients are concluding.
- The full public health impact of TPT for MDR/RR-TB contacts may surpass trial-measured outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the long-term impact of TPT for MDR/RR-TB contacts.
- To compare TPT strategies against no intervention or contact investigation alone.
Main Methods:
- An agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR/RR-TB transmission model was developed and calibrated to an Indian setting.
- Simulations compared a 6-month MDR/RR-TPT regimen (70% efficacy) with active case finding against alternatives.
Main Results:
- Within 2 years, MDR/RR-TPT prevented 72% of incident MDR/RR-TB cases among recipients (NNT=73).
- Long-term observation (13-18 years) reduced NNT to 54; including downstream transmission effects lowered it to 27.
- Including active TB screening effects reduced NNT to 12 compared to no household intervention.
Conclusions:
- The long-term population impact of TPT for MDR/RR-TB contacts, especially with active TB detection, could be substantially greater than trial results indicate.
- Effective TPT strategies can significantly reduce MDR/RR-TB burden beyond immediate treatment effects.
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