Existing Nongated CT Coronary Calcium Predicts Operative Risk in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgeries (ENCORES)

Preoperative cardiovascular risk stratification before noncardiac surgery is a common clinical challenge. Coronary artery calcium scores from ECG-gated chest computed tomography (CT) imaging are associated with perioperative events. At the time of preoperative evaluation, many patients will not have had ECG-gated CT imaging, but will have had nongated chest CT studies performed for a variety of noncardiac indications. We evaluated relationships between coronary calcium severity estimated from previous nongated chest CT imaging and perioperative major clinical events (MCE) after noncardiac surgery.

We retrospectively identified consecutive adults age ≥45 years who underwent in-hospital, major noncardiac surgery from 2016 to 2020 at a large academic health system composed of 4 acute care centers. All patients had nongated (contrast or noncontrast) chest CT imaging performed within 1 year before surgery. Coronary calcium in each vessel was retrospectively graded from absent to severe using a 0 to 3 scale (absent, mild, moderate, severe) by physicians blinded to clinical data. The estimated coronary calcium burden (ECCB) was computed as the sum of scores for each coronary artery (0 to 9 scale). A Revised Cardiac Risk Index was calculated for each patient. Perioperative MCE was defined as all-cause death or myocardial infarction within 30 days of surgery.

A total of 2554 patients (median age, 68 years; 49.7% women; median Revised Cardiac Risk Index, 1) were included. The median time interval from nongated chest CT imaging to noncardiac surgery was 15 days (interquartile range, 3-106 days). The median ECCB was 1 (interquartile range, 0-3). Perioperative MCE occurred in 136 (5.2%) patients. Higher ECCB values were associated with stepwise increases in perioperative MCE (0: 2.9%, 1-2: 3.7%, 3-5: 8.0%; 6-9: 12.6%, P<0.001). Addition of ECCB to a model with the Revised Cardiac Risk Index improved the C-statistic for MCE (from 0.675 to 0.712, P=0.018), with a net reclassification improvement of 0.428 (95% CI, 0.254-0.601, P<0.0001). An ECCB ≥3 was associated with 2-fold higher adjusted odds of MCE versus an ECCB <3 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.11 [95% CI, 1.42-3.12]).

Prevalence and severity of coronary calcium obtained from existing nongated chest CT imaging improve preoperative clinical risk stratification before noncardiac surgery.