Utility of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Persisting Postconcussive Symptoms in a Multicenter Sample of Youth...

A validated clinical risk tool has been developed to identify pediatric and adolescent patients at risk of developing persisting symptoms after concussion, but has not been prospectively investigated within a sample of athletes seen after concussion by primary care sports medicine physicians and/or athletic trainers.

To determine whether a validated clinical risk prediction tool for persistent postconcussive symptoms (PPCSs) predicted which patients would develop PPCSs when obtained within 14 days of concussion among a multicenter sample of adolescent athletes.

Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2.

Pediatric and adolescent patients (8-18 years of age) from 7 pediatric medical centers and 6 secondary school athletic training facilities who were diagnosed with a concussion and presented ≤14 days after concussion were enrolled as part of the Sport Concussion Outcomes in Pediatrics (SCOPE) study during their initial visit and were followed until symptom resolution. Clinical risk scores (Predicting and Preventing Post-concussive Problems in Pediatrics [5P]) and total symptom severity were obtained using the Post-Concussion Symptom Inventory at the initial visit (mean, 4.9 ± 2.9 days after concussion). Participants were then compared based on symptom resolution time: PPCS group (≥28 days to symptom resolution) and no-PPCS group (<28 days). The authors assessed the odds of developing PPCSs based on the 5P risk score using a binary logistic regression model and the utility of the clinical risk prediction tool to identify total time to symptom resolution using a Cox proportional hazards model.

A total of 184 participants enrolled, underwent initial evaluation, and were followed until symptom resolution (mean age, 15.2 ± 2.1 years; 35% female). The mean time to symptom resolution across the entire sample was 17.6 ± 3.7 days; 16% (n = 30) of participants developed PPCS. Those in the PPCS group had significantly greater mean initial total 5P risk scores than those in the no-PPCS group (7.9 ± 1.7 vs 5.9 ± 2.3, respectively; P < .001). After adjustment for initial symptom severity, time to assessment, and assessment setting, a higher initial total 5P risk score was associated with a significantly greater odds of developing PPCSs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.07-2.08; P = .019). Furthermore, a higher 5P risk score was significantly associated with longer total symptom resolution time (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.88; P < .001).

In a multicenter sample of youth athletes seen in different outpatient health care settings, the 5P risk score accurately predicted which athletes may be at risk for developing PPCSs.