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Verifying the Magnitude Dependence in Earthquake Occurrence.

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Magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering is debated. This study rejects the magnitude correlation hypothesis using synthetic and real earthquake data, suggesting it

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Area of Science:

  • Seismology
  • Earthquake Science
  • Geophysics

Background:

  • Magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported, impacting seismic predictability.
  • The cause of this correlation is debated, with possibilities including physical processes or data incompleteness (missing short-term aftershocks).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate and resolve the debate surrounding magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering.
  • To determine if a correlation between earthquake magnitudes is a physical phenomenon or an artifact of incomplete seismic catalogs.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of a synthetic earthquake catalog generated by a numerical model simulating earthquake statistics.
  • Application of the stochastic declustering method to a high-resolution earthquake catalog of the Amatrice-Norcia (2016) sequence.
  • Focusing analysis on events above the determined magnitude of completeness to ensure data reliability.

Main Results:

  • The study found no statistically significant evidence to support a magnitude correlation in earthquake triggering.
  • Analysis of both synthetic and real-world earthquake data led to the rejection of the magnitude correlation hypothesis.

Conclusions:

  • The observed magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering is likely not a physical characteristic of seismic processes.
  • Data incompleteness, particularly the omission of short-term aftershocks, may explain previous reports of magnitude correlation.
  • This finding has implications for understanding earthquake predictability and catalog completeness.