Beyond the Farm to Fork Strategy: Methodology for designing a European agro-ecological future

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Systems Ecology

Background:

• The European Commission's Farm to Fork Strategy aims to balance food security with environmental protection, leading to debate on agricultural intensification vs. de-intensification.
• Current European agriculture exhibits high territorial specialization, reliance on long-distance trade, and significant nitrogen (N) losses (14 TgN/yr, ~70% of N input).

Purpose of the Study:

• To objectively evaluate arguments for agricultural intensification versus de-intensification using quantified scenarios.
• To model and compare three future scenarios (Business-as-Usual, Farm to Fork, Agro-Ecological) for the European agri-food system by 2050.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Generalized Representation of Agri-Food Systems (GRAFS) accounting methodology to map nitrogen fluxes across European agri-food systems.
• Developed prospective scenarios based on yield-fertilization relationships and livestock models.
• Analyzed nitrogen flows across cropland, grassland, livestock, and human consumption in 127 geographical units.

Main Results:

• The Farm to Fork (F2F) scenario reduces synthetic fertilizer and feed import dependence by 40% and N losses by 30% (to 10 TgN/yr, 67% of inputs), falling short of ambitions.
• The Agro-Ecological (AE) scenario, featuring relocated feed production, organic crop rotations, and reduced animal product consumption, eliminates N imports and halves N emissions.
• The AE scenario allows Europe to remain a net exporter of cereals, meat, and milk while significantly reducing environmental nitrogen pollution.

Conclusions:

• Achieving ambitious environmental targets for European agriculture requires a transition beyond the Farm to Fork Strategy.
• A fully agro-ecological approach is necessary to achieve nitrogen self-sufficiency and drastically reduce environmental N losses.
• The GRAFS methodology provides a robust framework for scenario analysis in complex agri-food systems.