Assessing the Prevalence of Doping Among Elite Athletes: An Analysis of Results Generated by the Single Sample Count...

In 2011, a group of researchers investigated the 12-month prevalence of doping at the 13th International Association of Athletics Federations World Championships in Athletics (WCA) in Daegu, South Korea, and also at the 12th Pan-Arab Games (PAG) in Doha, Qatar. The prevalence of doping at each event was estimated using an established randomized response method, the Unrelated Question Model (UQM). The study, published in 2018, found that the prevalence of past-year doping was at least 30% at WCA and 45% at PAG. At both events, separate data sets were collected in addition to the UQM data using a new method, the single sample count (SSC). Recently, Petróczi et al. have reported 12-month doping prevalence estimates for these two events based on the SSC data. These investigators obtained substantially lower prevalence estimates using the SSC and suggested that the 2018 estimates based on the UQM may have been too high. However, in this communication, we point out several possible shortcomings in the methods of Petróczi et al. and show that their SSC data would be equally compatible with a high 12-month doping prevalence comparable to the UQM estimates published in 2018.