The Futility of Relative Methane Reduction Targets in the Absence of Measurement-Based Inventories

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Energy Policy
• Atmospheric Chemistry

Background:

• Canada aims for 75% oil and gas methane reduction by 2030 under the Global Methane Pledge.
• Current regulations lack verifiable baselines and inventories, hindering policy effectiveness.
• Saskatchewan, a major oil and gas producer, serves as a case study for methane emissions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To derive the first measurement-based methane inventories for Saskatchewan's oil and gas sector.
• To model historical emissions and assess the validity of claimed reductions.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of current policy metrics and propose improvements.

Main Methods:

• Utilized measurement-based data to establish methane inventories.
• Modeled historical emissions from 2012 to the present.
• Calculated methane emissions intensities (g/MJ) for quantitative assessment.

Main Results:

• Apparent methane reductions of 23-69% were observed, but are largely attributed to decreased heavy oil production.
• Nearly 90% of apparent reductions stem from reduced output, indicating potential for emission rebound.
• Saskatchewan's methane emissions intensity remains high at 0.41 ± 0.03 g/MJ, among the highest in North America.

Conclusions:

• Relative methane reduction targets without measured baselines are unverifiable and potentially misleading.
• Policies risk rewarding high emitters and obscuring true mitigation potential.
• Achieving global methane reduction goals requires objectively verifiable emission metrics and transparent progress tracking.