Decoupling the effects of air temperature change on soil erosion in Northeast China

Changes in the air temperature tend to indirectly affect soil erosion by influencing rainfall, vegetation growth, economic development, and agricultural activities. In this study, the partial least squares-structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used to decouple the impacts of temperature change on soil erosion in Northeast China from 2001 to 2019, and the indirect effect of temperature change on the pathways of natural and socioeconomic factors was analyzed. The results showed that temperature increase in Northeast China caused an increase in soil erosion by increasing rainfall and promoting economic development. Under the pathway of natural factors, in spring, the promoting effect on soil erosion under the influence of temperature change on rainfall was greater than the inhibiting effect on soil erosion under by the influence of temperature change on vegetation. In summer, the opposite effect was observed. Under the pathway of natural factors, over time, the promoting effect of temperature increase on soil erosion increased by 22.7%. Under the pathway of socioeconomic factors, temperature change not only aggravated soil erosion by promoting economic development, but also indirectly increased investments in agriculture and water conservation by improving the economy, thus inhibiting soil erosion to a certain extent. Over time, the contribution of temperature change to soil erosion through socioeconomic pathway was reduced by 44.4%. When the pathway of natural factors is compared with that of socioeconomics factors, temperature change imposed a more notable effect on the change in soil erosion through the socioeconomic pathway, indicating that human activities are the driving factors with a greater effect on soil erosion. Based on this, reasonable human intervention is an important means to alleviate soil erosion aggravation caused by rising temperatures.